Myanmar's Political Situation Enters Phase of Repeated Tragedy, Says Swedish Analyst

JAKARTA Indonesia, NETTInpo. Com

Myanmar's political crisis has entered a new, more worrying phase, marked by the strengthening of the military junta, closely supported by China.

Swedish analyst Bertil Lintner warns that the country's dark historical patterns are now repeating themselves in the form of a more severe tragedy for civilians.

Lintner, a strategic consultant on Asia and author of a book on Myanmar, refers to Karl Marx's concept that history repeats itself first as tragedy, then as drama.

However, in the case of Myanmar, he believes the sequence is reversed. "In Myanmar, history repeats itself as tragedy, not drama," he said, as quoted by Irrawaddy on Wednesday (April 22, 2026).

Repeated Historical Patterns

Following the bloody violence of 1988 and its international isolation, the Myanmar military was completely dependent on China.

This dependence forced the junta to open itself to the West, which had unexpected consequences: the strengthening of civil society and the landslide victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the 2015 elections.

The situation reversed sharply after the coup led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in February 2021.

International sanctions intensified again, but this time the military appeared to be more astute in managing foreign diplomacy—especially with China as its main support.

Chinese Support Key to Junta Strengthening

Lintner highlighted China's role as a crucial factor.

Economic and military support from Beijing made the junta more resilient in the face of popular resistance and global pressure.

"They learned from past mistakes and are no longer so reckless in opening the door to the West," he added.

This development is feared to prolong the suffering of civilians, with human rights reports continuing to document mass killings and the displacement of millions of people.

To date, armed resistance from ethnic and pro-democracy groups has not been able to shake the junta's hold on power.

The Indonesian government, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, continues to monitor the situation in Myanmar as part of ASEAN, although regional mediation efforts have not yet yielded significant results.